At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced a tough night, succumbing to a dramatic 4-3 loss against the Cleveland Guardians in a game where they let slip a three-run lead. The moment of heartbreak came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo.
The defeat marked the Twins' 18th loss in their last 27 games, a worrying trend for a team clinging desperately to the third AL wild-card spot. This relentless stretch of poor performance has seen their lead reduced to a razor-thin 1.5 games. Just weeks ago, FanGraphs had pegged their postseason odds at a solid 95.4%. This percentage has now dwindled to a precarious 76.4%, reflecting the team's recent struggles.
Offensive woes have plagued the Twins during this period. In 12 out of their last 27 games, they failed to score more than three runs, batting a lackluster .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. Surprisingly, the Twins have found some success when the bases are empty, hitting .272 in these scenarios, which makes them the fourth-worst in the league in this regard.
Despite the setbacks, there is anticipation of Max Kepler's return, which could infuse some much-needed energy into the team’s lineup. However, even with key players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who have combined to go 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month, the team has struggled to consistently put up runs.
Bullpen Woes
The Twins' bullpen, once a strength with a 3.84 ERA and a ranking of tenth in the league for win probability added (+3.41) in their first 123 games, has seen a dramatic decline. Over the recent 27-game span, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, accompanied by a league-worst win probability added of -2.75. Griffin Jax's comment encapsulated the sentiment within the bullpen, saying, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The heavy schedule has not helped matters, with the Twins playing 17 games in the last 18 days. The starting rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA and averaging just 4.38 innings per start during the same period. The bullpen's downward spiral, coupled with the rotation's struggles, has turned late-game leads into precarious situations. Of their last 18 losses, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five games and were tied on two other occasions.
Strategic Moves
In an attempt to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who has posted a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, adds some depth to a beleaguered pitching roster. Derek Falvey, the Twins’ baseball operations chief, explained the rationale behind the move: "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
Tight Race Ahead
The Twins find themselves in a tight race for a playoff spot, with both the Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners just two games behind them in the standings. Fortunately, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, a glimmer of hope in an otherwise daunting scenario. The Tigers have been particularly formidable, going 23-10 in their last 33 games.
As the season winds down, the sense of urgency within the Twins camp is palpable. "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," said Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Manager Rocco Baldelli echoed these sentiments, emphasizing the need for a stronger offensive output. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together." His repeated call for the team to "put nine innings together" underlines the systemic issues the Twins need to address if they hope to turn their postseason aspirations into reality.
This critical juncture in the season leaves the Twins with little room for error. Their ability to regroup, stabilize their pitching, and find consistency on offense will determine if they can hold on to their shrinking lead in the wild-card race and secure a playoff berth.